Geopolitical Dynamics of Southeast Asia in the Midst of Global Tensions

The geopolitical dynamics of Southeast Asia are currently increasingly complicated as global tensions increase. This region, which is strategically located between the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, has become an important arena for various major powers such as the United States, China and Russia. The tensions that arise from this rivalry affect political, economic and security stability in Southeast Asia. One of the main factors creating tension is territorial disputes in the South China Sea. China, through its “Nine-Dash Line” policy, claims almost the entire region, which is a strategic shipping lane and rich in natural resources. Countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia rejected the claims and sought to strengthen their positions. The strategic alliance with the US, which promised military support, further muddied the waters. Second, the shift in global power is also visible in relations between the United States and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). The US is trying to strengthen ties through various forums, such as the East Asia Summit and APEC. However, many ASEAN member countries prefer a multilateral approach rather than engaging in direct confrontation with China. This approach can be seen in ASEAN’s participation in RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), which prioritizes economic cooperation. Rapid economic growth in Southeast Asia also adds geopolitical complexity. Countries such as Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore are strengthening their positions as regional economic centers. Investment from China through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) offers opportunities but also raises concerns about economic dependency. These countries are faced with a strategic dilemma: maintaining close ties with China while maintaining balance with the US and other countries. Terrorism and extremism are also important issues in Southeast Asia, which have the potential to affect stability. Extremist groups such as ISIS are trying to recruit members in this region. In response, ASEAN countries are increasingly collaborating on security issues, sharing intelligence, and increasing military capacity to address this threat. In addition, environmental problems such as climate change and natural disasters also play a role in geopolitical dynamics. Southeast Asian countries face increasing risks from natural disasters, which could trigger mass migration and social tensions. Cooperation on environmental issues is becoming increasingly important, both at regional and global levels. Looking further, the shift in attitudes of small countries in the region must also be considered. Many countries began to take advantage of their strategic position to play among the great powers and gain diplomatic and economic benefits. Forging deeper ties with other global actors, such as the European Union and India, enriches its dynamics. In this context, it is important to understand that Southeast Asia’s stability depends not only on military strength, but also on diplomacy, economics and multilateral cooperation. China and the US each have their strategies, but a long-term solution requires greater collaboration between countries in Southeast Asia.